Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the Oscar Race

Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the Oscar Race

PLEASE NOTE: This projection, put together by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards writer Scott Feinberg, shows his finest effort to forecast the habits of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his individual choices. He gets to these standings by bring into play assessments with citizens and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards projects, outcomes of awards events that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars event itself. There will be routine updates to show brand-new advancements.

BEST PICTURE *

F rontrunners

King Richard(Warner Bros., 11/19, trailer)


Belfast
(Focus, 11/12, trailer)


A Hero
(Amazon, TBD, TBD)


The Power of the Dog
(Netflix. 11/17, trailer)


Dune
(Warner Bros., 10/22, trailer)


C’mon, Cmon
(A24, TBD, trailer)


CODA
(Apple, 8/13, trailer)


Spencer
(Neon/Topic, 11/ 5, trailer)


The Lost Daughter
(Netflix, 12/31, TBD)


Cyrano
(MGM/UA, 12/31, TBD)

Possibilities

Red Rocket(A24, TBD, TBD)


The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(Searchlight, 9/17, trailer)

The Hand of God(Netflix, 12/ 3, trailer)

Titane(Neon, TBD, trailer)

In the Heights(Warner Bros., 6/18, trailer)

Respect(MGM/UA, 8/13, trailer)

Summer of Soul(Searchlight, 7/2, trailer)

Long Shots

Flee(Neon, TBD, trailer)


Annette
(Amazon, 8/20, trailer)


The French Dispatch
(Searchlight, 7/24, trailer)


Bergman Island
(IFC, 10/15, trailer)


Last Night in Soho
(Focus, 10/29, trailer)

Stillwater(Focus, 7/30, trailer)

A Quiet Place Part II(Paramount, 5/28, trailer)

Still to See

Being the Ricardos(Amazon, TBD, TBD)


The Card Counter
(Focus, 9/10, trailer)


Cry Macho
(Warner Bros., 9/17, trailer)


Do Not Look Up
(Netflix, 12/10, trailer)


The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
(Amazon, 10/22, trailer)


The Harder They Fall
( Netflix, 11/ 3, trailer)


Home of Gucci
(MGM/UA, 11/24, trailer)


The Humans
(A24, TBD, TBD)


Licorice Pizza
(MGM/UA, 11/26, TBD)


The Many Saints of Newark
(Warner Bros., TBD, TBD)


Mass
(Bleecker Street, 10/ 8, trailer)


Problem Alley
(Searchlight, 12/17, trailer)


No Time At All to Die
(MGM/UA, TBD, TBD)


Parallel Mothers
(Sony Classics, 12/24, trailer)


Swan Song
(Apple, TBD, TBD)


The Tender Bar
( Amazon, TBD, TBD)

Tick, Tick … Boom!(Netflix, TBD, trailer)

The Tragedy of Macbeth(A24/ Apple, TBD, TBD)


West Side Story
(Disney, 12/10, trailer)

Zola(A24, 6/30, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR *

F rontrunners


Asghar Farhadi ( A Hero)


Kenneth Branagh ( Belfast)


Jane Campion ( The Power of the Dog)


Denis Villeneuve ( Dune)


Reinaldo Marcus Green ( King Richard)

Possibilities


Mike Mills ( C’mon C’mon)


Maggie Gyllenhaal ( The Lost Daughter)


Sian Heder ( CODA)


Pablo Larrain ( Spencer)


Joe Wright ( Cyrano)


Paolo Sorrentino ( The Hand of God)

Long Shots


Sean Baker ( Red Rocket)– podcast


Jon M. Chu ( In the Heights)


Leos Carax ( Annette)


Julia Ducournau ( Titane)


Edgar Wright ( Last Night in Soho)

Still to See


Pedro Almodovar ( Parallel Mothers)– podcast


Paul Thomas Anderson ( Licorice Pizza)


Halle Berry ( Bruised)


Janicza Bravo ( Zola)


George Clooney ( The Tender Bar)– podcast


Joel Coen ( The Tragedy of Macbeth)


Guillermo del Toro ( Nightmare Alley)– podcast


Clint Eastwood ( Cry Macho)


Cary Fukunaga ( No Time to Die)


Stephen Karam ( The Humans)


Fran Kranz ( Mass)


Adam McKay ( Don’t Look Up)– podcast


Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Tick, Tick … Boom!)– podcast


Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall)


Paul Schrader ( The Card Counter)


Ridley Scott ( House of Gucci)– podcast


Aaron Sorkin ( Being the Ricardos)– podcast


Steven Spielberg ( West Side Story)– podcast


Alan Taylor ( The Many Saints of Newark)

BEST ACTOR *

F rontrunners


Will Smith ( King Richard)– podcast


Benedict Cumberbatch ( The Power of the Dog)– podcast


Simon Rex ( Red Rocket)


Joaquin Phoenix ( C’mon Cmon)


Peter Dinklage ( Cyrano)

Possibilities

Jude Hill ( Belfast)


Matt Damon ( Stillwater)


Timothee Chalamet ( Dune)– podcast


Adam Driver ( Annette)– podcast


Andrew Garfield ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye)– podcast


Michael Keaton ( Worth)– podcast

Long Shots


Filippo Scotti ( The Hand of God)


Anthony Ramos ( In the Heights)


Amir Jadidi ( A Hero)


Tim Roth ( Bergman Island)


Winston Duke ( Nine Days)

Still to See


Mahershala Ali ( Swan Song)– podcast


Javier Bardem ( Being the Ricardos)


Nicolas Cage ( Pig)


Clifton Collins, Jr. ( Jockey)


Bradley Cooper ( Nightmare Alley)


Daniel Craig ( No Time to Die)


Leonardo DiCaprio ( Don’t Look Up)


Adam Driver ( House of Gucci)– podcast


Ansel Elgort ( West Side Story)


Andrew Garfield ( Tick, Tick … Boom!)– podcast


Jake Gyllenhaal ( The Guilty)– podcast


Tom Hanks ( Finch)– podcast


Cooper Hoffman ( Licorice Pizza)


Oscar Isaac ( The Card Counter)


Udo Kier ( Swan Song)


Jonathan Majors ( The Harder They Fall)


Tim Blake Nelson ( Old Henry)


Alessandro Nivola ( The Many Saints of Newark)


Tye Sheridan ( The Tender Bar)


Dan Stevens ( I’m Your Man)


Denzel Washington ( The Tragedy of Macbeth)– podcast

BEST ACTRESS *

F rontrunners


Kristen Stewart ( Spencer)– podcast


Olivia Colman ( The Lost Daughter)– podcast


Jennifer Hudson ( Respect)


Jessica Chastain ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye)– podcast


Emilia Jones ( CODA)

Possibilities


Haley Bennett ( Cyrano)


Agathe Rousselle ( Titane)


Thomasin McKenzie ( Last Night in Soho)– podcast


Marion Cotillard ( Annette)

Long Shots


Vicki Krieps ( Bergman Island)


Camille Cottin ( Stillwater)


Virginie Efira ( Benedetta)


Odessa Young ( Mothering Sunday)


Millicent Simmonds ( A Quiet Place Part II)

Still to See


Halle Berry ( Bruised)


Cate Blanchett ( Nightmare Alley)– podcast


Sandra Bullock ( The Unforgivable)


Penelope Cruz ( Parallel Mothers)


Jamie Lee Curtis ( Everything Everywhere All at Once)


Vera Farmiga ( The Many Saints of Newark)


Girl Gaga ( House of Gucci)– podcast


Alana Haim ( Licorice Pizza)


Nicole Kidman ( Being the Ricardos)– podcast


Jennifer Lawrence ( Don’t Look Up)– podcast


Frances McDormand ( The Tragedy of Macbeth)


Helen Mirren ( The Duke)– podcast


Renate Reinsve ( The Worst Person worldwide)


Rachel Sennott ( Shiva Baby)


Tessa Thompson ( Passing)


Rachel Zegler ( West Side Story)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR *

F rontrunners


Jamie Dornan ( Belfast)


Ciaran Hinds ( Belfast)


Jon Bernthal ( King Richard)


Kodi Smit-McPhee ( The Power of the Dog)


Eugenio Derbez ( CODA)– podcast

Possibilities


Timothy Spall ( Spencer)


Woody Norman ( C’mon C’mon)


Jimmy Smits ( In the Heights)


Forest Whitaker ( Respect)


Jesse Plemons ( The Power of the Dog)


Simon Helberg ( Annette)

Long Shots


Troy Kotsur ( CODA)


Jeffrey Wright ( The French Dispatch)


Benicio Del Toro ( The French Dispatch)– podcast


Kelvin Harrison, Jr. ( Cyrano)


Stanley Tucci ( Worth)

Still to See


Ben Affleck ( The Tender Bar)– podcast


David Alvarez ( West Side Story)


Timothee Chalamet ( Don’t Look Up)– podcast


Bradley Cooper ( Licorice Pizza)


Willem Dafoe ( The Card Counter)– podcast


Robin DeJesus ( Tick, Tick … Boom!)


Colman Domingo ( Zola)


Idris Elba ( The Harder They Fall)– podcast


Mike Faist ( West Side Story)


Corey Hawkins ( The Tragedy of Macbeth)– podcast


Jonah Hill ( Don’t Look Up)


Jeremy Irons ( House of Gucci)


Jason Isaacs ( Mass)


Richard Jenkins ( The Humans)


Richard Jenkins ( Nightmare Alley)


Jared Leto ( House of Gucci)– podcast


Delroy Lindo ( The Harder They Fall)– podcast


Ray Liotta ( The Many Saints of Newark)– podcast


Rami Malek ( No Time to Die)– podcast


Rob Morgan ( Don’t Look Up)


Al Pacino ( House of Gucci)– podcast


Mark Rylance ( Don’t Look Up)


J.K. Simmons ( Being the Ricardos)


David Strathairn ( Nightmare Alley)


Bradley Whitford ( Tick, Tick … Boom!)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS *

F rontrunners


Caitriona Balfe ( Belfast)


Kirsten Dunst ( The Power of the Dog)


Aunjanue Ellis ( King Richard)– podcast


Judi Dench ( Belfast)– podcast


Suzanna Son ( Red Rocket)

Possibilities


Jessie Buckley ( The Lost Daughter)


Marlee Matlin ( CODA)


Saniyya Sidney ( King Richard)


Demi Singleton ( King Richard)


Gaby Hoffmann ( C’mon C’mon)


Dakota Johnson ( The Lost Daughter)


Bree Elrod ( Red Rocket)

Long Shots


Anya Taylor-Joy ( Last Night in Soho)


Rebecca Ferguson ( Dune)


Audra McDonald ( Respect)


Mia Wasikowska ( Bergman Island)


Lilou Siauvaud ( Stillwater)


Olga Merediz ( In the Heights)

Still to See


Nina Arianda ( Being the Ricardos)


Cate Blanchett ( Don’t Look Up)– podcast


Toni Collette ( Nightmare Alley)


Ariana DeBose ( West Side Story)


Ann Dowd ( Mass)


Salma Hayek ( House of Gucci)


Jayne Houdyshell ( The Humans)


Vanessa Hudgens ( Tick, Tick … Boom!)– podcast


Riley Keough ( Zola)


Regina King ( The Harder They Fall)– podcast


Rooney Mara ( Nightmare Alley)


Rita Moreno ( West Side Story)


Ruth Negga ( Passing)– podcast


Martha Plimpton ( Mass)


Lily Rabe ( The Tender Bar)


Meryl Streep ( Don’t Look Up)– podcast

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY *

F rontrunners

The Power of the Dog(Jane Campion)

The Lost Daughter(Maggie Gyllenhaal)

CODA(Sian Heder)

Dune(Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)

Compartment No. 6(Juho Kuosmanen)

Possibilities


Cyrano
(Erica Schmidt)

In the Heights(Quiara Alegría Hudes)

Long Shots


The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(Abe Sylvia)

A Quiet Place Part II(John Krasinski)– podcast

Still to See


Cry Macho
(N. Richard Nash & Nich Schenk)

Drive My Car(Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)

The Guilty(Nic Pizzolatto)


Home of Gucci
( Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)


The Humans
(Stephen Karam)


The Many Saints of Newark
(David Chase & Lawrence Konner)


Headache Alley
(Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan)– podcast(del Toro)


No Time At All to Die
(Cary Fukunaga, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade & Phoebe Waller-Bridge)– podcast(Fukunaga) & podcast(Waller-Bridge)


Passing
(Rebecca Hall)


The Tender Bar
(William Monahan)


Tick, Tick … Boom!
(Steven Levenson)


The Tragedy of Macbeth
( Joel Coen)

West Side Story(Tony Kushner)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY *

F rontrunners

Belfast(Kenneth Branagh)


A Hero
(Asghar Farhadi)

King Richard(Zach Baylin)

C’mon, Cmon(Mike Mills)

Red Rocket(Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch)– podcast(Baker)

Possibilities


Spencer
(Steven Knight)


Last Night in Soho
(Edgar Wright)


The Hand of God
(Paolo Sorrentino)

Bergman Island(Mia Hansen-Løve)

Long Shots


The French Dispatch
(Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)


Stillwater
(Tom McCarthy)– podcast

Annette(Ron Mael & Russell Mael)

Respect(Callie Khouri & Tracey Scott Wilson)

Still to See

Being the Ricardos(Aaron Sorkin)– podcast


The Card Counter
( Paul Schrader)

Don’t Look Up(Adam McKay & David Sirota)– podcast(McKay)

The Harder They Fall(Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)

Licorice Pizza(Paul Thomas Anderson)

Mass(Fran Kranz)

Parallel Mothers(Pedro Almodovar)– podcast

Shiva Baby(Emma Seligman)

Zola(Janicza Bravo)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE *

F rontrunners

Summer of Soul(Searchlight/Hulu)

The Rescue(Nat Geo)

The Velvet Underground(Apple)

Flee(Neon)

Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain(Focus)

Possibilities

Found(Netflix)


Julia
(Sony Classics)


Cow
(IFC)


Francesco
(Discovery )

The Sparks Brothers(Focus)

Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry(Apple Television )

Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free(circulation not yet revealed)


Val
(Amazon)

Still to See


Ailey
(Neon)


All Light, Everywhere
(Neon)


Attica
(Showtime)


A Cop Movie
(Netflix)

Becoming Cousteau(Nat Geo)

Bring Your Own Brigade(CBSN/Paramount)

Convergence: Courage in a Crisis(Netflix)

Cusp(Showtime)

Dave Chappelle: This Time, This Place(HBO)

Fauci(Nat Geo)

The First Wave(Neon)– podcast(Matthew Heineman)

Homeroom(Hulu)

In the Same Breath(HBO)

Introducing, Selma Blair(Discovery )

LFG(HBO Max)

The Lost Leonardo(Sony Classics)

Mayor Pete(Amazon)

Misha and the Wolves(Netflix)

My Name Is Pauli Murray(Amazon)

Pray Away(Netflix)

Procession(Netflix)

The Real Charlie Chaplin(Showtime)

Rebel Hearts(Discovery )

Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It(Roadside)

Sisters on Track(Netflix)

Stray(Magnolia)

Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street(HBO)

Torn(Nat Geo)

Who We Are(Sony Classics)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE *

Frontrunners

A Hero(Iran)

Compartment No. 6(Finland)

Titane(France)

The Worst Person on the planet(Norway)

The Hand of God(Italy)

Possibilities


Leave
(Denmark)

Still to See


Casablanca Beats
(Morocco) *


A Chiara
(Italy)

A Cop Movie(Mexico)

Fever Dream(Peru)

Hive(Kosovo) *

I’m Your Man(Germany) *

Lamb(Iceland)

Leave No Traces(Poland)

Oasis(Serbia) *

Olga( Switzerland) *

One Second(China)

Petite Maman(France)

Prayers for the Stolen(Mexico)

7 Prisoners(Brazil)

Sumergible(Ecuador) *

White Building(Cambodia) *

BEST ORIGINAL SONG *

Frontrunners


” Be Alive”– Beyonce Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott ( King Richard)


” Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)”– Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King ( Respect)


” So May We Start”– Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette)


” Down to Joy”– Van Morrison ( Belfast)


” Every Letter”– Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] ( Cyrano)

Possibilities (rest of shortlist)


” The Anonymous Ones”– Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg ( Dear Evan Hansen)


” My Father’s Daughter”– Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder ( Flag Day)


” We Love Each Other”– Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette)


” Beyond the Shore”– Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries ( CODA)


” Believe”– Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton ( The Rescue)

Still to See

” Home All Summer”– Lin-Manuel Miranda ( In the Heights)– podcast


” No Time to Die”– Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell ( No Time to Die)


” Million to One”– Camila Cabello & Scott Harris ( Cinderella)


” Somehow You Do”– Diane Warren ( Four Good Days)– podcast


” Never Gon na Tame You” ( The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses)– podcast


” At the Automat”– Mel Brooks ( The Automat)


” Secret Sister”– Rufus Wainwright ( Rebel Hearts)


” Blome Swete Lilie Flour”– Daniel Hart ( The Green Knight)


” Inside Your Heart”– Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo)– podcast


” Keep the Beat”– Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo)– podcast


” My Own Drum”– Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo)– podcast


“[not yet titled]”– Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande & Kid Cudi ( Don’t Look Up)


” Columbia, Mi Encanto”– Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Encanto)– podcast


” Just for Me”– SZA & Saint JHN ( Space Jam: A New Legacy)


” On My Way”– Alex Lahey ( The Mitchells vs. The Machines)


” We Win”– Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith ( Space Jam: A New Legacy)


” Call Me Cruella”– Florence The Machine ( Cruella)


” Fire in the Sky”– Anderson.Paak ( Shang-Chi and the L egend of the Ten Rings)


” Lead the Way”– Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard ( Raya and the Last Dragon)


” Hourglass”– Mary J. Blige ( Mary J. Blige’s My Life)– podcast


” On My Way”– Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum ( The Mitchells vs. the Machines)


” Chasing Dreams”– Goze & Tyler Strickland ( Changing the Game)


” Beginning Middle End”– Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond ( To All the Boys: Always and Forever)


” Only One Way to Fly”– Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [“The Lumineers”] ( The Starling)


” Tu Draumst [To Dream]”– Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge ( Munich: The Edge of War)


“[not yet titled]”– [artists TBA] ( The Harder They Fall)

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